Next-phase models

Fire is the first application of a method, not the company's ceiling.

Every natural catastrophe has a deciding variable that is approximated in every model that prices it and measured on the ground by nobody. We measure it beside enough events to learn the timing, and name the date.

Next · Flood

The deciding variable is the saturation of the catchment before the rain.

The same rain on the same catchment floods one year and does not the next; the difference is the water already in the ground. Flood models take it from coarse satellite products. Pyrome's flood model measures it through the profile, across the catchment, hourly, beside the floods that follow, and returns a date, a magnitude, an extent and a loss per reach.

Then · Storm

The deciding variable is the condition of what stands in the wind.

Wind is forecast well and far ahead. What it does to a network or a forest edge depends on the condition of what stands in its path, which storm-loss models treat as static. Pyrome's storm model measures it under the storm track and names the spans and stands that will fail, ahead of the wind.